Source: Business Standard

With last year's production estimated at 3.40 million bales of 170 kg each, prices continued their stable trend, down from the global highs reached in 2011. Though the bountiful monsoon this year has benefited sowing of this kharif crop, the three top producing states — Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh — have been hit hard by heavier than normal rains.

However, while heavy rains in Maharashtra, especially the Vidarbha region, have led to some doubts on the quality of arrivals, rains in Gujarat are not reported to have affected the crop dramatically, though a delay in arrivals from there are being factored into the market now. With these uncertainties, despite an estimated record output and comfortable stocks, small spikes in prices cannot be ruled out this year, as strategic stockpiling, and higher exports can give some fillip to domestic prices.

 

Globally, the higher output from India will provide some relief for global prices, given lower expected production from the US and China. IPM data till week ending October 19. The Indicus Price Monitor (IPM), a product of Indicus Analytics Pvt Ltd, tracks real-time wholesale prices for 60 agricultural products from about 3000 mandis. Due to differences in methodology, the actual levels of the IPM differ from the corresponding Wholesale Price Index. However, the broad trends are in sync.