Source: Business Standard
With rising demand, mainly from exports, production has grown significantly in recent years. From an average of 8,54,000 tonnes a year in last decade, output touched a record 2.2 million tonnes in 2011-12. While this led to a fall in prices then, the poor monsoon last year led to firming up of prices over the past six months, though stocks from the previous year had helped cap any sharp rise. The second Advanced Estimates for 2012-13 have placed production at 1.7 mn tonnes. India,the largest producer of the crop, accounts for about 80 percent of its global exports. Demand from China is a key factor in price trends, though a drop is expected in Chinese demand. While there will be some upward pressures on price, there are no expectations of a sharp spike this year.
IPM data till week ended March 23. The Indicus Price Monitor, a product of Indicus Analytics Pvt Ltd tracks realtime wholesale prices for 60 agricultural products from more than 3,000 mandis across the country. Due to differences in methodology, the actual levels of the IPM differ from the corresponding WPI. However, broad trends are in sync.