India is the largest producer of bajra; while it is the fifth-most-important cereal here, bajra is consumed largely by the poorer segments, and high inflation hits these groups hard. In 2011-12, the minimum support price for bajra had been increased 11.36 per cent; and from Rs.980 a quintal to Rs.1,175 a quintal for the 2012-2013 crop year and 2013-2014 marketing season, a rise of 19.89 per cent.

While the output in 2010-11 and 2011-12 crossed 10 MT, this year’s output is significantly lower. While the first advance estimates of agricultural production, released in September, had set the 2012-13 crop to be more than a third lower than the previous year's output, the second have put the numbers down by close to 20per cent, which would help stem a very sharp rise in prices. Yet, prices are unlikely to trend lower. 

IPM data till week ending February 16, 2013. The Indicus Price Monitor, a product of Indicus Analytics Pvt Ltd, tracks real-time wholesale prices for 60 agricultural products from about 3,000 mandis across the country. Due to differences in methodology, the actual levels of the IPM differ from the corresponding WPI. However, broad trends are in sync.