Rapeseed-mustard is a rabi crop grown predominantly in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Inflation in rapeseed-mustard has been in double digits since mid-2011, as supply has significantly lagged demand but the pressures are now seen to be coming off. This year, a good crop is in the offing — sown area till February 1 was 0.18 million hectares more than last year. There are good subsoil moisture conditions and favourable weather. Pilots of the high-yielding Gujarat Mustard 3 are expected to bring good dividends and if this variety takes off well, India can be expected to produce more. The retail price of mustard oil is Rs.105.13 a kg, steadily increasing since May 2010, when it was Rs. 63.05. The pressures of demand are high and India has just imported the highest ever monthly quantity of vegetable oils since the sector opened in 1994. Prices, therefore, are unlikely to cool in the next few months.

IPM data till week ending February 9. The Indicus Price Monitor (IPM), a product of Indicus Analytics Pvt Ltd, tracks real-time wholesale prices for 62 agricultural products from about 3,000 mandis across the country. Due to differences in methodology, the actual levels of the IPM differ from the corresponding wholesale price index. However, the broad trends are in sync.